Source: Ouster December 2020 presentation This chart from Ouster highlights the disparity in values in the lidar sector. The other lidar companies that have followed Luminar on the path have actually used this stock as the benchmark targets.Ĭolonnade just announced a business combination with Ouster to take their lidar technology public. The company interestingly made benchmarking comparisons with semiconductor stocks such as Nvidia ( NVDA) and Xlilinx ( XLNX). The market for independent lidar technologies could end up very limited. Remember, these numbers have a lot of questions due to the statements by key customer Mobileye.Ī lot of the automotive sector appears up for grabs with companies such as Tesla ( TSLA ) and Waymo ( GOOG ) ( GOOGL ) either developing alternative technologies or internal lidar technology. The stock trades at 27x 2025 EBITDA estimates. In total, Luminar now trades with an EV of over 12x 2025 revenue estimates. Revenues start the surge in 2023 and beyond. Even Volvo doesn't list their contract with Luminar starting until 2022 and not surprisingly Luminar only provides a 2022 revenue target of $35 million. The big question is how much of this revenue could be impacted by Mobileye going in-house.Īs with the sector, most AV programs don't start for years so revenue totals will start slow until projects ramp in a few years. Regardless, the company only forecasts a 2025 revenue opportunity of $837 with strong EBITDA margins of 44%. Luminar forecasts an opportunity for up 70 million units by 2030.
The company has big deals with the likes of Volvo ( OTCPK:VOLVY) and the auto OEMs and major programs in areas such as robotaxi.
While the automotive promises a big market opportunity, Luminar is facing some stiff competition where customers such as Mobileye, owned by Intel ( INTC), are openly discussing the goal of building an in-house lidar product by 2025. The lidar company is focused on the automotive sector of the space while other players going public via SPACs such as Velodyne Lidar ( VLDR) and Ouster ( CLA) are much more focused on robotics and industrial applications. Even with net cash of nearly $500 million, the company has an EV of $10 billion. Considering the SPAC deals are based on $10 per share, Luminar already has tripled, placing the market valuation above $10 billion. Luminar completed their SPAC deal with Gores Metropoulos in December and the stock now already trades at $32 with a high above $41. Investors appear far too bullish on the automotive portion of the lidar sector. The hottest stock in the sector is Luminar ( NASDAQ: LAZR), but the stock may not be the best investment here. The lidar sector has seen a rush of companies going public via SPACs.
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